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The Working Capital System · four modules that build on each other
01Working Capital Designyour inventory strategy02Integration Accelerator™the ERP connection03Order Steering™ordering rules for your purchasing04Managed Operationsongoing operations
ToolWorking capital calculatoryour potential in numbersKnowledgeInsightshands-on knowledge on inventory and purchasingTechnologyEazyStockthe inventory-optimisation softwareTechnologyEazyERPthe middleware to your ERP
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Working Capital Designyour inventory strategyIntegration Accelerator™the ERP connectionOrder Steering™ordering rules for your purchasingManaged Operationsongoing operations
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Working capital calculatoryour potential in numbersInsightshands-on knowledge on inventory and purchasingEazyStockthe inventory-optimisation softwareEazyERPthe middleware to your ERPweclappEazyStock for weclappSelectLineEazyStock for SelectLineAlphaplanEazyStock for AlphaplanpixiEazyStock for pixiOpaccEazyStock for OpaccSAP Business OneEazyStock for SAP Business OneDynamics NAVEazyStock for Dynamics NAVBusiness CentralEazyStock for Business CentralAcumaticaEazyStock for AcumaticaComarchEazyStock for Comarch
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DEEN

Inventory forecasting: forecasting with fluctuating demand.

The key points

  • The forecast estimates future demand per article and is the basis for safety stock and reorder point.
  • No model hits the future exactly: the goal is a systematically small error, not the perfect point value.
  • The right method depends on the demand pattern: smooth, trending, seasonal or sporadic.
  • Sporadic articles (many zero days) need their own methods like Croston, not classic smoothing.
  • The biggest lever is rarely the model, but the data quality before it.

Why do you even need a forecast?

Safety stock and reorder point assume an expected consumption. If you use the average of the past for it, you ignore trend and season and are systematically off: too much stock before the lull, too little before the peak. The forecast replaces the rear-view mirror with a look ahead.

Which method fits which pattern?

Which articles fall into which group is told to you by the ABC/XYZ analysis. The forecast is thus computed differently per class, not across the board.

How do you recognise a good forecast?

Not by the single hit, but by the error over time. Metrics like MAPE or bias show whether you're off on average and whether systematically up or down. A forecast with constant bias is worse than one with random noise: the one is correctable, the other honest.

Before you argue about methods, clean the history: one-off orders, in-plant consumption and discontinued articles distort every forecast. A simple model on clean data beats a complex one on dirty data.

Keep reading

Inventory & Purchasing

ABC/XYZ analysis: a steerable assortment in 4 steps.

Inventory & Purchasing

Never out of stock again: automatic demand forecasts in EazyStock.

Inventory & Purchasing

From slow movers to fast movers: why you shouldn't procure every article the same way.

Inventory & Purchasing

Inventory optimisation in 3 steps: forecast, optimisation, procurement.

Inventory & Purchasing

Inventory planning: the second step in inventory management.

Inventory & Purchasing

Logistics vs. supply chain management: definition and differences.

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